Our Observations (Not financial advice)
- Technical analysis: TA indicating slowing and potential bottoming of downward trend. Move above MA 200 levels would confirm that direction. Bottom forming to be watched carefully, since price is still below two crucial supports and no bottom has been formed in the last weeks. (neutral / bearish)
- On-chain analysis:
a) Despite this risk of further dropping BTC/USD prices, long-term holders seem to resume to accumulate BTC liquid supply. (bullish)
b) RHODL ratio indicates that there is still room in this bull cycle. RHODL ratio has not hit yet extreme values as in 2013 and 2017. (bullish)
- Stock-to-flow analysis: It is crucial that S2F recovers similar to 2017 and that prices do not stay at current levels for the upcoming months.(bullish)
1. Technical analysis
BTC/USD price dropped more than 55% from its high at c. USD 65k. Currently prices are trading below crucial supports, the 125 MA (blue line) and 200 MA (red). The long-term RSI seems to reach oversold territory. As in the previous observation, it remains to be seen if BTC/USD can bottom here and reclaim above MA 200 territories. From a TA trend following perspective a reclaim would be a bullish sign, but at current state TA indicates that potential to form a bottom here needs to be watched carefully.
Key Taking: TA indicating slowing and potential bottoming of downward trend. Move above MA 200 levels would confirm that direction. Bottom forming to be watched carefully, since price is still below two crucial supports and no bottom has been formed in the last weeks.
2. On-chain analysis
On-chain we focus our analysis on a) relative supply in P/L and b) RHODL ratio to understand the current state.
a) Relative supply in P/L
The chart below shows the relative supply held by long (blue) and short (red) term holders and whether they are in profit (dark color) or loss (light color).